Armenian Economic Association
Workshops and Seminars
Macroeconomics workshop on Growth Theory, hosted by CRRC at 2-4PM on  Monday, June 20, 2016.

This workshop is state of the art lecture on modern economic growth  theory. It starts with a brief discussion of neoclassical growth  
theories and earlier contributions by Ramsey (1928) and Solow (1957).
It shows that these earlier contributions cannot explain long run  growth. It proceeds to a brief discussion of endogenous growth  theories
with human capital accumulation and ideas/knowledge (Lucas,  1988; Romer, 1990) which are suited for explaining long run growth.  
Modern theories of growth with ideas posit exchange of ideas but do  not model the microeconomics of it. This workshop discusses a recent
model which adds market for ideas to a stylized growth model and shows its growth and welfare implications.

Location: 1 Alex Manoogian Street, YSU Library building, 6th floor, room 602

Duration: 2-4 PM

Lecture notes: https://1drv.ms/b/s!AoyEZJ6snbHHgYpnGWqBYsueVnSLmg

Prerequisites: Audience should be comfortable with calculus.

Registration is required as space is limited. If too many register we may move the venue to a larger location. Please register either at the  
conference page http://aea.am/conferences.html or follow the
link:

About the instructor: Vahagn Jerbashian is an Assistant Professor of economics at the University of Barcelona, Spain. He holds a Ph.D. in
economics from CERGE-EI, Czech Republic.

AEA thanks CRRC for hosting the workshop and Professor Jerbashian for donating his time.
INCLUSIVE ECONOMIC GROWTH: THEORY AND EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE IN ARMENIA
Thursday, 31 March 2016, 16:00-18:30 Hours
Manoogian Hall, American University of Armenia, Yerevan, Armenia

Synopsis
Inclusive economic growth has become a popular topic of discussion not only among academics but also policymakers, international
financial institutions, and the civil society in general. The international experience suggests that policies promoting inclusive growth are a
crucial factor to ensure sustainable economic development while enhancing social justice and reducing conflict.

The seminar, which is open to the general public, will feature a public lecture by Professor Ravi Kanbur of Cornell University focused on the
theory and practice of inclusive economic growth and an empirical application in the case of Armenia provided by Aleksandr Grigoryan of the
American University of Armenia. The event is part of a broader Asian Development Bank’s study on: “Good Jobs for Inclusive Growth in
Central and West Asia”. Discussions will cover issues related to inequality in terms of income and opportunities, social protection, as well
as development of institutions and human capabilities.

AGENDA
15:30–16:00 Registration

16:00–16:10 Chair: Vardan Baghdasaryan, Armenian Economic Association
Welcome Address
Randall Rodes, Provost, American University of Armenia

16:10–17:00 Public Lecture
Inclusive Growth: Global Forces and National Policies
Guest Speaker: Ravi Kanbur, Professor of Economics, Cornell University

17:00–17:15 Coffee break

17:15–17:40 Inclusive Growth and Income Distribution: The Case of Armenia
Aleksandr Grigoryan, Professor, American University of Armenia

17:40–18:00 Discussants:
Guanghua Wan, Director for Research, Asian Development Bank Institute
Gayane Barseghyan, Assistant Professor, American University of Armenia

18:00–18:30 pen floor discussion

18:30 End of Seminar

Professor Ravi Kanbur is the T.H. Lee Professor of World Affairs, International Professor of Applied Economics and Management, and
Professor of Economics at Cornell University.

Professor Aleksandr Grigoryan is the chair of the MBA program at the American University of Armenia, and President of the Armenian
Economic Association

There is no fee to attend. Please register at the beginning of the workshop.
Forecasting techniques and forecast evaluation, hosted by the Central Bank of Armenia at 10AM-3PM, on June 22nd, 2015.

This workshop examines time series models used for forecasting macroeconomic series and discusses forecast evaluation techniques. The
main emphasis is on forecast evaluation techniques covering tests of relative and absolute evaluation and briefly considering the
assessment of predictive density calibration. The workshop will involve both theoretical and empirical aspects of forecast evaluation.

Duration: 10AM-3PM; 2-hour lecture segment, with an hour break in between

Prerequisites: This is a graduate level workshop. Audience should be comfortable with simple algebra and familiar with basic concepts of
econometrics.

About the instructor: Tatevik Sekhposyan is an Assistant Professor of Macroeconomics at the Texas A&M University at College Station. She
has worked previously at the central Bank of Canada and holds a Ph.D. from the University of North Caroline at Chapel Hill. See more at
http://www.tateviksekhposyan.org/

Registration is free but is required.
Register either at the conference page http://aea.am/conferences.html
or follow the link:
http://docs.google.com/forms/d/1i0ma6SQD32z-vHzoIsRKF-yyTsPNGZE-zyost7TZQQQ/viewform

AEA thanks the Central Bank for hosting the workshop and Professor Sekhposyan for donating her time.
Workshop "Modeling Market Risk in Mathematica".
The workshop is scheduled for 10AM to 12PM, Monday, June 23rd.  Registration is free, but is required to help decide on venue in case of
sizeable interest.

Modeling Market Risk in Mathematica

With the creation of global financial networks, banking systems of most countries have become increasingly inter-linked. At the same time,
changes in equity prices, interest rates, commodity prices and currencies, i.e. market risk, began to play an increasingly important role in
overall risk exposure of financial institutions. Recent global financial crisis forcefully demonstrated great importance of properly measuring
and managing risk and, in particular, market risk.

The purpose of the workshop is to discuss fundamental concepts and provide an overview of the key models most frequently used in
measuring market risk. This is done in an environment particularly suited for building such models, namely using the software Mathematica
(by Wolfram Research). All concepts are illustrated using real data. After the workshop, participants shall be given the fully functional
interactive lecture notes written in Mathematica that they can later use to further explore these topics and continue learning about this
important subject.

The workshop plans to cover most of the following topics:
• Stylized facts about asset returns
• Key measures of market risk: Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CvaR)
• Historical Simulation VaR
• RiskMetrics approach to measuring VaR and CVaR
• Modelling conditional volatility dynamics: GARCH models
• Comparing VaR models
• Modeling non-normality of standardized asset returns
• Backtesting and stress testing market risk models

The Workshop will be conducted by Branko Urosevic (PhD in Finance, UC Berkely, USA), Professor of Finance, University of Belgrade, and
advisor to USAID/FED.
Workshop on the state of art in public finance, by David Joulfayan, hosted by the Central Bank of Armenia (CBA) on October 21, 2013
Armenian data sources and their role in shaping public policy, hosted by Central Bank of Armenia, 10AM-noon, Friday, June 23, 2017

This workshop explores different types and sources of micro and macro data that are instrumental for evidence based public policy design,
and presents several examples of such research from Armenia. Sources of data include firm-level administrative tax-returns, matched
household and individual-level surveys, scraped registrar data on firm ownership aggregated to town-level, as well as historical
country-level datasets. The usefulness of several other data sources, the value of merging these datasets, and the important role of
utilizing natural experiments in these applications are discussed.

Such data is then used to evaluate the effectiveness of public policy in Armenia, particularly focusing on fiscal and tax policy. Issues and
questions of interest include:
i) the effectiveness of traditional-type government interventions, such as sectoral tax subsidies or size and place-based tax exemptions on
firm performance and entrepreneurship,
ii) the role of behavioral properties of public policy, such as the potential effects of nudges, framing and information on small-business
tax compliance or on individual savings rates,
iii) the institutional setup of fiscal governance with the goal of achieving sustainable public finances.

Location: Central Bank of Armenia, 6 Vazgen Sargsyan St., Yerevan

Duration: 10AM-noon

Prerequisites: Audience should be comfortable with basic econometrics.

Registration is required per security. Please register at the following link:
https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSfUhZHYTtfX23STeNDP3tjYNb7b7SutoO26kvFS1mwqIILwkQ/viewform

About the instructor: Zareh Asatryan is researcher at ZEW's Research Department "Corporate Taxation and Public Finance". He completed
his doctorate in Economics from the University of Freiburg, Germany. For additional details, see http://www.zew.de/en/team/ZAS/

AEA thanks CBA for hosting the workshop and Dr. Asatryan for donating his time.
Macro workshop, by Vahagn Jerbashian, hosted by Central bank of Armenia, October 15, 2012.
DSGE Modeling, by Gayane Barseghyan, hosted by CRRC, October 15, 2011
The Sources and Uses of Survey Data on Armenia, by Shushanik Hakobyan, hosted by CRRC, September 18, 2009. Slides
Modeling Wealth Distributions, Central Bank of Armenia, Dilijan, 2-4PM, August 3, 2017

Abstract:
Today there are six people in the world who have as much combined wealth as half the human population.  In 2010, that figure was 388, so
we live in a world where wealth is rapidly concentrating. Understanding how and why this is happening, and what if anything needs to be
done about it is an interdisciplinary problem that will ultimately involve mathematicians, economists, physicists, political scientists, and
specialists in ethics, justice, and public policy.

In the 1990s, a number of physicists began to apply methods of statistical physics to the study of wealth and income distributions.  Particular
progress was made with a class of agent-based models called "asset-exchange models."  These models represent an economy by a
collection of economic agents who exchange wealth in pairwise transactions according to idealized rules.

In this talk, I shall describe recent results obtained using a very simple asset-exchange model with only three free parameters, all of which
are motivated by particular features of the society's microeconomics.  The first feature is a measure of the level of redistribution present.  
The second is the degree to which the society confers an advantage to wealthier agents.  The third is a measure of the extent to which
there are negative-wealth or "underwater" agents in the economy.

In spite of the simplicity of this model -- no advanced mathematics will be used for its description in this presentation -- we will see that it has
a number of interesting features:

  • It is capable of explaining the actual wealth distribution of the United States between 1989 and the present with remarkable accuracy.
  • It provides a natural explanation of the phenomenon of oligarchy, in which a finite fraction of a society's wealth is held by a
    vanishingly small fraction of its population.
  • It relates useful economic metrics, such as "upward mobility," to the underlying transactional model.

Finally, I shall relate the asset-exchange model described above to transactions between agents based on a stochastic version of General
Equilibrium theory.  In doing so, I will explain the origin of the widespread belief that free-market economies are inherently stable, even in
the absence of imposed redistribution.  I will also explain why this model strongly suggests that this belief is wrong.

Location: Central Bank of Armenia, Dilijan

Duration: 2-4PM

Registration is required for non-CBA staff per security. Please register at the following link and indicate whether you like to carpool to drive
to Dilijan:
https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSd9Fr8PJdDg92UhTdJ5Bb-6uOv9B5aj6DhB_Baffm20Cmjgtw/viewform

About the presenter: Bruce Boghosian is a professor of mathematics at Tufts University, and President Emeritus of the American University
of Armenia.  His research on wealth distributions has appeared in, inter alia, Physical Review E, the Journal of Statistical Physics, and
Physica A.  For the convenience of CBA and AEA members, the most recent of these papers can be temporarily downloaded from the
following address <https://tufts.box.com/s/qx6a0bi3pv8y7xx955c18wk0j22ch9oq>.

AEA thanks CBA for co-sponsoring and hosting the workshop, and Professor Boghosian for his presentation.
International reserves composition: central banks, exchange rate targets and gold. Central Bank of Armenia, Dilijan, 11:00-13:
00PM, August 2, 2017

Abstract:
This paper explores the composition of international reserves under an exchange rate target. The model allows for numerically calculating
the shadow price – interpreted as the central bank’s sacrifice of policy precision given one more unit of portfolio variance – of the target
exchange rate. The simulations indicate a two-regime demand for gold. The multiple equilibria results indicate that increasing the demand
for gold from 0 to 21 percent shares of international reserves leads to a lower but unstable policy sacrifice. The next minimum sacrifice
occurs approximately at around 40 to 60 percent of gold in the reserve portfolio. These results, therefore, indicate a wide range of
possibilities for a central bank targeting the exchange rate to vary its demand for gold. Moreover, the results suggest that the ability to target
the exchange rate is unaffected by the higher volatility of monthly returns on gold.

Location:  Central Bank of Armenia, Dilijan, Armenia

Duration: 1
1:00-13:00PM

Registration is required for non-CBA staff per security. Please register at the following link and indicate whether you like to carpool to Dilijan:
https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSfxLCdvPScCTB0V6hQCBdui5A62_x_OAqrNos7oDXUj--Q5HQ/viewform

About presenter: Aleksandr V. Gevorkyan is assistant professor at St. John’s University, NY. His recent book (co-editor with Otaviano
Canuto) Financial Deepening and Post-Crisis Development in Emerging Markets was published by Palgrave MacMillan in 2016.This
research is co-authored with Tarron Khemraj of New College of Florida and Central Bank of Barbados.

AEA thanks CBA for co-sponsoring and hosting the workshop, and Professor Gevorkyan for his presentation.
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